Your Team Doesn’t Need You to Predict the Future
Don't be like Miss Cleo.
Sure, the people you lead may be anxious about the future. They may want answers, certainty, and reassurance. And you may be tempted to provide a picture of the future.
But you don't know what will happen with M&A activity, commodity prices, or AI's impact.
And your job isn't to predict the future for your team like a (fake) psychic with a (fake) Jamaican accent.
Your job is to lead them into the future.
And after a SHALE INSIGHT 2026 conference with so much focus on the future, some of the same principles shared during an Onterris-sponsored breakout session around emergency response planning can help you do just that.
2022-2025 Shale Insight RecapS
“Are You Energy Dense...or Energy Dense?” (The Energy Detox, Episode 121)
How many M&M’s does it take to match the energy in one Mcf of natural gas?
Find out in this SHALE INSIGHT® 2025 recap, which asks:
Are you an energy dense leader…or are you an “energy dense” leader?
“What do Maple Syrup, Natural Gas, and Energy Leadership Have in Common?” (The Energy Detox, Episode 93)
Did you know that maple syrup inspired what many consider to be the first “major” commercial natural gas well drilled — and the first “long-haul” natural gas pipeline (a whopping 11 miles from Murrysville to Pittsburgh!) — in the world?
Did you know that the Haymaker brothers who drilled the well were in search of oil, not gas?
Did you know that there are two cocktails inspired by natural gas that can serve (and that were served during the 2024 WEN Shale Insight Happy Hour) as refreshing reminders of how you can be a more effective leader?
“How Do We Make Nat Gas Stickier?” (The Energy Detox, Episode 94)
What can we do to create a Natural Gas epidemic?
What small steps can we take to boost the stickiness of our industry's message?
And how can you—as an individual leader—overcome the natural immunity of your stakeholders so that they infect countless others with knowledge of the differentiated value you generate?
Inspired by the Marcellus Shale Coalition's SHALE INSIGHT® 2024 conference, 400 bottles of maple syrup, and Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point, Episode 94 of The Energy Detox will help you answer those three questions.
Comment below with all of your suggestions on how we can build upon an already strong shale story to reach a "tipping point" where the undeniable benefits of natural gas become common knowledge among policymakers and their constituents.
“Decoding the Leadership Lessons of S.H.A.L.E. I.N.S.I.G.H.T. 2023” (The Energy Detox, Episode 85)
Ever wonder why SHALE INSIGHT® is always written in ALL CAPS?
Could it be that the Marcellus Shale Coalition has cleverly concealed a 12-word acronym within the name of its flagship event?
Either way, this post-conference episode of The Energy Detox podcast attempts to unearth S.H.A.L.E. I.N.S.I.G.H.T. leadership themes letter-by-letter, leaving you with 12 questions inspired by the 2023 slate of speakers.
“(Shale) Insight to (Leadership) Action” (The Energy Detox, Episode 71)
“Insight without action is worthless.” - Marie Forleo
Inspired by the 2022 SHALE INSIGHT® conference, this episode of The Energy Detox translates a theme from each of the conference keynotes into proven and practical leadership steps you can take today to go from “insight to action.”
Transcript
(AI training in progress; please excuse any errors)
Did you know that nearly 6 million people dialed in to the Miss Clio Psychic Hotline around the year 2000, racking up hundreds of millions of dollars of charges, all at a rate of $4.99 a minute? And do you have any idea why so many people called in to Miss Clio? Well, it's fair to speculate that many of them were seeking insight About the future, and now if you don't know who Miss Cleo was, she may very well be described as a version of ChatGPT from about 25 years ago, where you can reach out confidentially to share your thoughts, your concerns, seek insight about the future, seek some advice, seek some validation. And today, I'm going to argue that you are, you know, many ways like Miss Clio, because if you're a leader in any way, shape, or form, you likely have people around you who want some view of the future, and you may very well be tempted to provide that view. But today, I'm going to argue that your job is not to provide a view of the future. Your job is to lead them into the future, and there are very practical ways to do that. Many of which are inspired by, not really Miss Clio, but more significantly, the theme of the Shale Insight Conference that occurred over the last couple of days here on the shore of the Lake Erie Bayfront, where the theme was the future from the very beginning of the conference. In fact, before it even started, you could find that message on display right here on the bay, where there were boats with protesters. One of the boats had a big sign that said, "Don't frack our future. So, from the protesters to the speakers to a lot of the individual conversations that occurred, the future was on everybody's mind. The future of the industry, the future of energy here in Pennsylvania and throughout the nation, the future of the companies that operate here, and of course, the future of the teams and the individuals and everybody impacted by the evolving state of the energy industry, and more significantly, power demand, data centers, AI. What does it all mean for the future? And without getting into all of those conversations and all of the ways in which the future was on display, I'm going to step through three things that I see on a regular basis: coaching leaders in the energy industry who are tempted at times to do too much, to put on their Miss Clio hat and their fake Jamaican accent, perhaps. And the first future-related leadership approach that was on display this week here at Shell Insight has to do with emergency response planning. In fact, a breakout session that I attended today, that was put on by a company called Terrace, who assembled a panel of individuals, was all about how to enhance your emergency response planning, how to make sure that your people, that your processes are up to snuff, so that when something inevitably happens and things do happen, you're ready. And of course, emergency response planning is something that's standard for every company involved in the energy industry. But what does that have to do with you when it comes to leading your people. What can we learn about the practical realities of preparing for spills or leaks or other potential catastrophes that can be applied to the anxieties, the worries, the more figurative catastrophes that occur on a day-to-day basis when you're trying to lead a team? Well, the reality is that you can take the same approach that these panelists do. You can go forth and say, "Hey, what are some of the things that we can rehearse related to an employee that isn't working out that we need to address some issues with? What can you do when you know somebody's fixing to leave your company, who's tremendously valuable, and if they leave, well, that's an emergency of sorts. What kind of emergency response planning can you do when you know you need to respond to something that your company messed up? Not from a environmental standpoint or from an operational standpoint, but you know maybe you delivered something that was inadequate to a big customer, and you need to again go into emergency response mode, so to speak. Those are the type of things that you, as a leader, can address proactively.
04:05
You can rehearse for, and probably more significantly, on the minds of a lot of the people that I talk with, how do you prepare for the inevitable emergencies, so to speak, that come with M and A activity, with layoffs, with uncertainty regarding your jobs? Heck, just as the conference kicked off, one of the exhibitors here, the attendees here, found out that their company was going to be acquired just before the conference kicked off. And certainly, from an operator standpoint, again, you can look at the headlines, and there are operators represented here that are very much in the public domain, with people wondering, "Hey, what's going to happen with this company? What's going to happen with these assets? What does it mean for those individuals who are employed? Those are very big questions that, to those individuals, to those team members concerned about the future, well, they warrant an emergency response plan of sorts. And so, the suggestion for you, and the type of thing that I work with leaders on on a regular basis, is to address these things proact. You wouldn't just you know sit on your hands and assume that nothing wrong is going to happen from an operational standpoint, from an environmental standpoint. So why would you do the same when it comes to inevitable changes within your company, whether it's related to personnel changing or M and A? Why wouldn't you go forth and drill, so to speak, rehearse these things, ask yourself how they might play out, and have these open, honest conversations, bring the truth to the forefront. Again, that's why people are reaching out to Miss Clio theoretically, right? They want the truth. Well, give them the truth, because the truth is nobody's job is secure. So, what can you do in the interim to rehearse these things, to bring them to the forefront, and to say, "Hey, if this were to happen, are you ready? Are you prepared? Same thing that people are doing operationally to make sure they're prepared. The second approach that you could take to help lead your team into the future without feeling tempted to paint a clear picture of the future has to do with resources, because one of the conversations again here at Shell Insight, during that panel, in fact, was about the importance of making sure resources are in place so that when something happens, when an emergency pops up, you already have what you need to go forth and execute-not just the plan, but also the people, the relationships, in particular, relationships with local officials, with emergency responders, with the media, so that you're not starting from scratch. You can go forth and execute, and it's that same thing that I challenge you to do when it comes to the non-logistical operational things that need to be addressed. For instance, if you have people who are concerned about the inevitability of M&A and what that might mean for their jobs. Have you had a conversation about resources like resumes, resources like their network? Who do they know? Who can they reach out to so that if something happens, they're not suffering from an extra case of anxiety and tempted to call whatever the equivalent is of Miss Clio for help? They have coaches. They have confidence. They have people in their corner to help move them along, and they know that ahead of time. So that right now, when they're not necessarily in a place where they should be worried about getting laid off, they can work freely. They're not looking over their shoulder. That's the type of thing that you can do as a leader to lead them into the future without having to worry about making predictions on you know when they're actually going to need these resources, and the third thing, all related to preparing for the future, leading people into the future without having to worry about painting a clear picture of the future, is testing some of these things out, and a lot of this has to do with another theme of conversation this week, and that is secession planning. You know, when I have conversations and in my work as a leadership coach inside of these companies, one of the common themes is helping future leaders be ready, ready for the moment that they're called up.
07:52
But so often those conversations are limited by speculation on what else this person needs to grow and develop, and they're good conversations to have. But the reality is, how do you actually test these things out? Now, when we're talking about operational planning, again, you can run drills, you can do emergency response scenarios, you can role play, you can get to the point where you test these things out, again, to a point. But I would argue that when it comes to things like secession planning, you can actually take it a step further because you can remove current leaders from their role temporarily, even if it's as temporary as a vacation. You can make sure that you're removing leaders from the day to day to make sure that people can step up, they can take charge, they can execute. You have an advantage, but so often what happens is when a leader does go away, perhaps on vacation, everything is just on hold. People are holding their breath, and when that leader returns, they breathe a sigh of relief. And there isn't the the post mortem, there isn't the look back that really can contain a whole bunch of value about the preparedness, the readiness for those future leaders who were put in charge. And again, it's low-hanging fruit. We talked about resources here just a minute ago. That's a resource pulling people out of the equation for some period of time intentionally to essentially test, to have an emergency response drill, so to speak. That's the next level of secession planning, not just sitting in a room and looking at reviews and having conversations and ticking boxes, go forth operationally and test it out, and that's the difference that you can make as a leader who, again, isn't content trying to just paint a picture of the future, but can go forth and lead people into the future by, quite frankly, testing it out, doing a drill, and so that's the encouragement for you today. Ask yourself how you can drill your team, drill your company on secession planning instead of just having it sitting in a binder somewhere waiting for the inevitable to happen. Similarly, how can you go forth and examine the resources that are already at your company's disposal when it comes to resume preparation and helping people get ready for interviews in the future? Again, this might seem crazy. And it's one of my soapbox items, but it's something that's very much consistent with what so many people here at the Shale Insight Conference do on a day-to-day basis. And I get that busy leaders might dismiss what I'm suggesting as unnecessary, a waste of time. If these things aren't front and center, if the future isn't here now, why should I worry about it? I got enough real things to worry about, enough real drills to go through. But I would argue that the investment of time now will pay off tenfold when the inevitable does happen, because we know that's the case with real operational things. We know that when an emergency happens, it's going to cost the company. There's no escaping that, but the emergency preparedness is a very small number to make sure that the overall cost of reclamation, responding, fixing whatever goes wrong, to make sure that that cost is not as high as it could be. It's no different when it comes to secession planning and helping people work without anxiety, so they're not worried. So they feel prepared for the future, whatever it holds. So I would argue that to do that now, to do it proactively, is very much consistent with what all of these companies are tasked with doing on a regular basis. So ask yourself, do you want to be more like Miss Clio as a leader, trying to paint a picture of the future for your anxious team to try and make them feel better, even though you have no idea what the future actually holds. Or would you rather be like an emergency response planning team who puts together plans, identifies and secures resources, tests those plans, tests those resources, so that when the inevitable happens, everyone is ready. So that in the interim, they can have less anxiety. They can go forth and execute more profitably, more effectively.
11:49
And now, whichever path you choose, and regardless of whether you choose to don a Jamaican accent while you do it, at the very least, we can rest assured that there is one thing about the future that is crystal clear from this week here at Shale Insight, and that is that energy, and in particular natural gas, will play a key role in determining what the future holds for the United States and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And so, with that, thank you for joining me, Joe Sinnott, here at the Erie Bayfront on the heels of the Shale Insight Conference, and I wish you the very best as you flow further into the future.